Incumbent Raquel Lyra (PSD) leads trader assessments for the Pernambuco governorship at 69.5% implied probability, ahead of main challenger João Campos (PSB) at 29.5%, with Ivan Moraes and others at negligible levels. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys through early August show Lyra holding narrow first-round edges or statistical ties (around 43-48% versus Campos at 37-42%), narrowing from earlier spring polls where Campos had led. Lyra's incumbency since her 2022 victory, combined with approval ratings near 60% in some measures and the October 4 first-round timeline, underpins the market's positioning in this rematch. The race remains closely contested within margins of error, with second-round scenarios and turnout among key Pernambuco voting blocs likely to determine the outcome.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateRaquel Lyra 70%
João Campos 29%
Ivan Moraes <1%
$26,280 Vol.
$26,280 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Raquel Lyra
70%
João Campos
29%
Ivan Moraes
1%
Raquel Lyra 70%
João Campos 29%
Ivan Moraes <1%
$26,280 Vol.
$26,280 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Raquel Lyra
$11,824 Vol.
70%
João Campos
$12,304 Vol.
29%
Ivan Moraes
$2,151 Vol.
1%
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Raquel Lyra (PSD) leads trader assessments for the Pernambuco governorship at 69.5% implied probability, ahead of main challenger João Campos (PSB) at 29.5%, with Ivan Moraes and others at negligible levels. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys through early August show Lyra holding narrow first-round edges or statistical ties (around 43-48% versus Campos at 37-42%), narrowing from earlier spring polls where Campos had led. Lyra's incumbency since her 2022 victory, combined with approval ratings near 60% in some measures and the October 4 first-round timeline, underpins the market's positioning in this rematch. The race remains closely contested within margins of error, with second-round scenarios and turnout among key Pernambuco voting blocs likely to determine the outcome.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$26,280Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Raquel Lyra (PSD) leads trader assessments for the Pernambuco governorship at 69.5% implied probability, ahead of main challenger João Campos (PSB) at 29.5%, with Ivan Moraes and others at negligible levels. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys through early August show Lyra holding narrow first-round edges or statistical ties (around 43-48% versus Campos at 37-42%), narrowing from earlier spring polls where Campos had led. Lyra's incumbency since her 2022 victory, combined with approval ratings near 60% in some measures and the October 4 first-round timeline, underpins the market's positioning in this rematch. The race remains closely contested within margins of error, with second-round scenarios and turnout among key Pernambuco voting blocs likely to determine the outcome.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$26,280Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Raquel Lyra (PSD) leads trader assessments for the Pernambuco governorship at 69.5% implied probability, ahead of main challenger João Campos (PSB) at 29.5%, with Ivan Moraes and others at negligible levels. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys through early August show Lyra holding narrow first-round edges or statistical ties (around 43-48% versus Campos at 37-42%), narrowing from earlier spring polls where Campos had led. Lyra's incumbency since her 2022 victory, combined with approval ratings near 60% in some measures and the October 4 first-round timeline, underpins the market's positioning in this rematch. The race remains closely contested within margins of error, with second-round scenarios and turnout among key Pernambuco voting blocs likely to determine the outcome.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong