OPEC's active coordination among core producers underpins the 93% market-implied odds against dissolution by year-end. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and remaining members held June 2026 ministerial meetings, implementing production adjustments of 188,000 barrels per day while issuing updated monthly oil market reports that revised 2026 global demand growth lower to 970,000 barrels per day. These steps demonstrate sustained cartel functionality following the UAE's May 1 exit over quota disputes, consistent with the group's historical resilience after prior departures. Realistic scenarios that could shift sentiment include additional major producer exits or outright breakdown in voluntary cuts amid geopolitical supply shocks, though current trader positioning reflects the low near-term probability of formal dissolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC's active coordination among core producers underpins the 93% market-implied odds against dissolution by year-end. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and remaining members held June 2026 ministerial meetings, implementing production adjustments of 188,000 barrels per day while issuing updated monthly oil market reports that revised 2026 global demand growth lower to 970,000 barrels per day. These steps demonstrate sustained cartel functionality following the UAE's May 1 exit over quota disputes, consistent with the group's historical resilience after prior departures. Realistic scenarios that could shift sentiment include additional major producer exits or outright breakdown in voluntary cuts amid geopolitical supply shocks, though current trader positioning reflects the low near-term probability of formal dissolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,586Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC's active coordination among core producers underpins the 93% market-implied odds against dissolution by year-end. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and remaining members held June 2026 ministerial meetings, implementing production adjustments of 188,000 barrels per day while issuing updated monthly oil market reports that revised 2026 global demand growth lower to 970,000 barrels per day. These steps demonstrate sustained cartel functionality following the UAE's May 1 exit over quota disputes, consistent with the group's historical resilience after prior departures. Realistic scenarios that could shift sentiment include additional major producer exits or outright breakdown in voluntary cuts amid geopolitical supply shocks, though current trader positioning reflects the low near-term probability of formal dissolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$29,586Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC's active coordination among core producers underpins the 93% market-implied odds against dissolution by year-end. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and remaining members held June 2026 ministerial meetings, implementing production adjustments of 188,000 barrels per day while issuing updated monthly oil market reports that revised 2026 global demand growth lower to 970,000 barrels per day. These steps demonstrate sustained cartel functionality following the UAE's May 1 exit over quota disputes, consistent with the group's historical resilience after prior departures. Realistic scenarios that could shift sentiment include additional major producer exits or outright breakdown in voluntary cuts amid geopolitical supply shocks, though current trader positioning reflects the low near-term probability of formal dissolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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