Nashville SC’s league-leading 74 points and Supporters’ Shield capture, built on a +44 goal difference and unbeaten home record, anchor trader consensus at 23.1 percent implied probability for the MLS Cup. Vancouver Whitecaps FC sit second overall with 61 points and the West’s top seed, while Inter Miami CF hold strong Eastern form despite trailing Nashville by 15 points. The bunched top probabilities reflect the playoff structure—best-of-three early rounds followed by single-elimination knockout—where regular-season dominance yields home-field advantage yet leaves room for momentum shifts, injuries, or upsets among the eight-to-nine qualifiers per conference. Recent Decision Day results and seeding battles further tighten the field ahead of the November 18 start.