Frank Scarpitti maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 Markham mayoral race due to his two-decade incumbency since 2006 and repeated strong re-election results, including 64 percent in 2022. Nominations closed in late August with only two challengers—Martin Ross and Stephen Edgell—confirmed for the October 16–26 voting period, which features online and in-person options through October 26. Ross, a first-time candidate, has drawn attention from a prior backyard rink dispute with city officials, while Edgell remains lesser-known. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major recent developments that would shift momentum. A late scandal, unusually low turnout among core supporters, or unexpected consolidation behind one opponent could still narrow the gap before results are certified.