NVIDIA holds an 82% implied probability as the largest company by market cap at the end of September 2026, driven by its dominant position in AI accelerators and data-center GPUs that have fueled explosive revenue growth and sustained its lead over Apple at roughly $5.1 trillion versus $4.9 trillion. Traders see limited near-term risk of a reversal in the remaining two weeks, given NVIDIA’s structural advantages in the semiconductor supply chain and ongoing AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers. Apple’s 17% odds reflect its stable consumer base but slower growth trajectory relative to NVIDIA’s AI momentum, while other names like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla sit below 1% amid smaller valuations and less direct exposure to the current chip cycle. No major earnings or regulatory events are scheduled before month-end to shift the consensus.