Recent diplomatic momentum centers on US- and French-mediated talks for a conditional ceasefire, with Washington describing a draft agreement as close and Israel’s security cabinet scheduled to decide on the proposal. The framework envisions a 60-day transition involving Israeli force adjustments, Lebanese army redeployment near the border, Hezbollah heavy-weapon withdrawal north of the Litani River, and a US-led monitoring committee, building on the stalled June 2026 trilateral accord. Implementation remains blocked by sequencing disputes—Israel conditions full withdrawal on verified disarmament steps, while Hezbollah insists on prior Israeli pullback—and active Israeli strikes continued into mid-October. Hezbollah’s public stance ties any cooperation to ending hostilities and restoring Lebanese sovereignty, while Lebanese officials emphasize negotiations as the path to stability. Traders are monitoring the cabinet outcome and any immediate halt in qualifying military actions that could initiate the required 14-day pause.