**Recent polling averages for the October 27, 2026 Knesset election place United Torah Judaism (UTJ) at 7–8 seats, aligning with the market’s leading 52% probability on that range.** Multiple surveys from outlets including Zman Yisrael, Kantar, Midgam, and others released in the past two weeks consistently project UTJ at exactly 7 or 8 mandates, reflecting its stable ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) voter base and limited volatility compared with larger parties. The Netanyahu-aligned bloc, which includes UTJ alongside Shas, Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism–Zehut, averages roughly 51–53 seats across recent aggregates—short of the 61-seat majority threshold. UTJ’s positioning within this bloc has shown little movement, with its seat totals holding steady even as Likud and other partners fluctuate. No major new developments in the past 30 days, such as shifts in coalition negotiations, draft-exemption legislation, or Haredi turnout campaigns, have materially altered these projections. The election’s proximity leaves little room for late swings that could push UTJ outside the 7–8 band.