Recent Israeli polls ahead of the October 27 Knesset election place Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, at 7-8 seats in most surveys, consistent with a national vote share near 6-7 percent. This positioning stems from the party's reliable base among Sephardi Haredi voters, bolstered by its surplus-vote agreement with United Torah Judaism that improves seat efficiency. Shas has emphasized demands for legislation securing yeshiva student exemptions from military conscription as a precondition for any coalition, a stance that has not produced major polling swings in recent weeks. Broader bloc competition between Netanyahu-aligned and opposition parties, along with turnout dynamics among religious voters, continues to anchor trader expectations around the current leading outcome.