Recent polling for Israel’s October 27 election shows Otzma Yehudit, running independently under Itamar Ben-Gvir, fluctuating between roughly seven and nine Knesset seats amid competition for right-wing voters from Likud, Religious Zionism–Zehut, and smaller lists. The party cleared Central Elections Committee and High Court challenges in September and early October, removing disqualification risks, yet surplus-vote negotiations and turnout concerns in the broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc continue to influence its projected share. Voter fragmentation near the 3.25 percent threshold, combined with modest week-to-week shifts in surveys, has kept implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 4.5–7.5 percent bands. Late-campaign developments such as security incidents, right-wing consolidation efforts, or differential turnout among religious and nationalist voters could widen or narrow those ranges before election day.