Recent polling averages place Otzma Yehudit, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, in the 7–8 seat range ahead of the October 27 Knesset election, with individual surveys showing 6–9 seats. Running independently without a joint list alongside Religious Zionism has split the right-wing vote and introduced variability tied to the 3.25% electoral threshold. Broader bloc dynamics, including competition from Likud, Shas, and smaller parties, along with undecided turnout among security-focused voters, keep outcomes clustered. A surge above 9 seats would require stronger consolidation of nationalist support or shifts in perceived security priorities before election day, while consistent polling near the lower end of the current range sustains trader expectations for 6–9 seats.