Recent polling averages place the Joint List, the alliance of Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad, at roughly 7-8 Knesset seats in the October 27 election, with most surveys showing 7-9. This range explains the market's near-even split between the 6-7 and 8-9 brackets. The Supreme Court’s early October ruling allowing the list to run removed a major disqualification risk, while leader Yousef Jabareen’s public offer to back an anti-Netanyahu government from outside on specific conditions has kept Arab-party dynamics in focus. Tight overall bloc competition, variable Arab turnout, and the 3.25% threshold’s impact on seat distribution sustain the uncertainty; late shifts in turnout or small-party performance near the line could move the final tally.