Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party faces steep structural challenges heading into Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election. Recent polling averages place the party below the 3.25% electoral threshold, with most surveys showing it at or near zero seats as voters migrate to larger center and opposition lists such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett-Yair Lapid’s Together. Defections of sitting MKs and repeated calls from opposition figures for strategic withdrawals have further eroded its base. Gantz has submitted an independent slate and publicly reassured supporters that their votes will not be wasted, yet the consistent failure to clear the threshold in October surveys underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward sub-1.25% outcomes. The tight overall race between Netanyahu-aligned and opposition blocs leaves little room for smaller parties to consolidate support before election day.