**Recent polling and internal party developments have driven trader consensus toward Amcha Yisrael securing fewer than four Knesset seats.** The new right-wing party, launched in late August 2026 by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, has hovered near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold in surveys throughout September and October. Multiple polls released in the past week, including those from Channel 12 and i24NEWS, place it at roughly 1.5–3.1%, insufficient for entry. A high-profile defection on October 13 by candidate Davidi Ben-Zion, who cited the risk of wasting right-wing votes, reinforced this trend and drew public comments from Prime Minister Netanyahu and Bezalel Smotrich urging withdrawal. These events, occurring two weeks before the October 27 election, have narrowed expectations for the party’s performance despite its initial positioning as a potential addition to the right-wing bloc.