President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act to support federal immigration enforcement and respond to related protests in cities including Los Angeles, Portland, and Chicago, often citing overwhelmed local law enforcement. Courts have limited related National Guard federalizations under other statutes, with the Ninth Circuit upholding restrictions on a June 2025 Los Angeles deployment in an October 2026 ruling. The Act has not been formally invoked during recent operations or around the 2026 midterms, where high turnout occurred without military presence at polls. Trader consensus reflects these legal and procedural barriers plus the lack of qualifying widespread unrest, though scheduled executive actions or escalations in enforcement could still influence probabilities before year-end resolution.