Howard Lutnick remains actively engaged as Secretary of Commerce, confirmed by the Senate in February 2025 and continuing in the role through mid-October 2026 with ongoing responsibilities in tariff policy, trade negotiations with partners including Canada, Mexico, and India, and congressional testimony on issues such as broadband funding. Recent developments show no public signals of resignation, removal, or friction with the administration that would prompt departure before the October 31 resolution date. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.3% probability for “No” aligns with this continuity and the absence of structural or political triggers for change in the narrow remaining window. Rare scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an unanticipated health event, major ethics controversy forcing action, or a direct presidential decision amid fast-moving trade disputes.