Official temperature observations recorded by National Weather Service stations in Seattle on September 10, 2026, established a daily maximum of 70–71°F, producing the market’s near-certain outcome. Preceding forecasts from regional models anticipated cooler conditions under an incoming upper-level trough, with highs projected in the upper 60s to low 70s amid increasing cloud cover and southerly flow. This aligns with climatological norms for early September, when average highs hover near 72°F, and recent years have shown variability driven by Pacific high-pressure patterns. Trader consensus reflects verified post-event data rather than forward-looking uncertainty. Only an extraordinary revision to official records or a change in station selection criteria could alter the resolution.