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icon for Grok 4 released by...?
Teknolohiya·AI

Grok 4 released by...?

icon for Grok 4 released by...?
Teknolohiya·AI

Grok 4 released by...?

$177,242 Vol.

Sep 30, 2025
Polymarket

$177,242 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for September 30

September 30

$139,445 Vol.

Yes

icon for December 31

December 31

$37,797 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4 (e.g. Grok 4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 3, similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 3.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4 (e.g. Grok 4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 3, similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 3.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Grok 4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4 (e.g. Grok 4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 3, similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 3.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$177,242
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2025
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 2, 2025, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4 (e.g. Grok 4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 3, similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 3.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Na-propose ang outcome: Yes

Nai-dispute

Na-propose ang outcome: Yes

Nai-dispute

Pinal na outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4 (e.g. Grok 4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 3, similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 3.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4 (e.g. Grok 4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 3, similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 3.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Grok 4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4 (e.g. Grok 4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 3, similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 3.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$177,242
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2025
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 2, 2025, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4 (e.g. Grok 4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 3, similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 3.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Na-propose ang outcome: Yes

Nai-dispute

Na-propose ang outcome: Yes

Nai-dispute

Pinal na outcome: Yes

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Grok 4 released by...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 2 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "September 30" sa 100%, sinusundan ng "December 31" sa 100%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 100¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Grok 4 released by...?" ay naka-generate ng $177.2K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Jun 2, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Grok 4 released by...?," i-browse ang 2 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Grok 4 released by...?" ay "September 30" sa 100%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "December 31" sa 100%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Grok 4 released by...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.