Olivier Faure leads the market for second place in the first round of the French Socialist Party presidential primary because trader consensus views Raphaël Glucksmann as the likely winner among the roughly 140,000 eligible PS members, Place Publique supporters, and GRS affiliates voting 9–10 October. Faure, the party’s first secretary since 2018, declared his candidacy in late August after losing an internal vote on primary format, positioning himself as the candidate of wages, purchasing power, and openness to broader left alliances while facing internal criticism over past ties to La France Insoumise. Recent televised debates have sharpened contrasts with Glucksmann on foreign policy, LFI relations, and economic priorities, yet Faure’s institutional base and name recognition sustain expectations he will trail only the frontrunner. Lower-priced contenders such as Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Jérôme Guedj trail further behind in implied probabilities, reflecting limited momentum in the closed electorate ahead of the two-round vote.