Jared Moskowitz holds an 84% implied probability in the FL-25 contest due to his incumbency in the newly redrawn South Florida district stretching from Delray Beach through Broward into Miami-Dade, combined with stronger fundraising totals exceeding $5.7 million and consistent polling leads of 5–6 points in late October surveys. Forecasters including Cook Political Report shifted the race to Lean Democratic after initial toss-up ratings, reflecting Moskowitz’s edge among independents and the district’s coastal demographics despite its Trump +9 margin in 2024. Scott Singer, the former Boca Raton mayor, trails at 16% amid mixed internal polling, reduced outside Republican spending, and the absence of a decisive late surge. Election-day resolution on November 3 will hinge on turnout in the Miami media market and final vote margins in this closely monitored midterm House race.