Florida’s 9th congressional district underwent mid-decade redistricting by the Republican-controlled legislature, expanding its footprint into more rural, Republican-leaning counties while reducing the share of Democratic-leaning Hispanic voters in Central Florida. This structural shift moved the seat from a Democratic lean to a Lean or Likely Republican rating across major forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Darren Soto, seeking a sixth term, faces Republican nominee Dan Green, a Navy Reserve veteran and former Trump Pentagon official who prevailed in an August primary. An early internal poll showed the candidates tied, but the altered electorate and national environment have positioned Green as the consensus favorite among traders. The November 3 general election remains the decisive event.