A strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigning over 90% odds of a very strong event by fall and winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant driver of current trader sentiment. This pattern typically favors above-normal temperatures across much of the contiguous United States through September and October, delaying the first measurable snowfall (≥0.1 inch) relative to 1991-2020 normals in lower elevations. High-country sites in the northern Rockies and Cascades retain the highest near-term probabilities for September accumulations, while Northeast and Great Lakes locations align with late-October-to-November timing similar to historical analogs. NOAA and AccuWeather guidance highlight warmer, drier fall conditions overall, with model consensus and upcoming CPC seasonal updates likely to refine landfall or accumulation thresholds that resolve related markets.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFirst snow of the 2026 season

Buffalo, NY by October 31
55%

Denver, CO by October 31
57%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
59%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
54%

Boston, MA by November 15
55%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
92%

Chicago, IL by November 15
63%

Denver, CO by November 15
94%

Detroit, MI by November 15
90%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
83%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
34%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
88%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
62%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
93%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
74%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
11%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
87%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
84%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
19%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
89%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
44%
$7,487 Vol.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
55%

Denver, CO by October 31
57%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
59%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
54%

Boston, MA by November 15
55%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
92%

Chicago, IL by November 15
63%

Denver, CO by November 15
94%

Detroit, MI by November 15
90%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
83%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
34%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
88%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
62%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
93%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
74%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
11%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
87%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
84%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
19%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
89%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
44%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
A strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigning over 90% odds of a very strong event by fall and winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant driver of current trader sentiment. This pattern typically favors above-normal temperatures across much of the contiguous United States through September and October, delaying the first measurable snowfall (≥0.1 inch) relative to 1991-2020 normals in lower elevations. High-country sites in the northern Rockies and Cascades retain the highest near-term probabilities for September accumulations, while Northeast and Great Lakes locations align with late-October-to-November timing similar to historical analogs. NOAA and AccuWeather guidance highlight warmer, drier fall conditions overall, with model consensus and upcoming CPC seasonal updates likely to refine landfall or accumulation thresholds that resolve related markets.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update

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