David Harbour leads the market at 66.8% implied probability for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, driven by his critically praised turn in the HBO Max limited series “DTF St. Louis,” which earned multiple acting nominations and strong guild and critics’ recognition. Charles Melton sits at 24.4% on the strength of his work in Netflix’s “Beef,” though the project trails in overall momentum compared with the frontrunner. Lower-probability contenders Richard Gadd (“Half Man”), Jason Bateman and Richard Jenkins (both “DTF St. Louis”), and Nick Offerman (“Death by Lightning”) reflect solid but narrower industry support, with intra-show competition and fewer precursor wins limiting their upside. The September ceremony remains the key resolution catalyst, and late shifts in voter sentiment could still narrow the gap.