Recent fracture within the Morena-PVEM alliance in Colima has heightened uncertainty ahead of the June 2027 state congress election. Senator Virgilio Mendoza resigned as PVEM state leader over the national decision to ally with Morena and the selection of Rosa María Bayardo as coordinator, prompting him to explore an opposition front with PAN, PRI, and MC. This local realignment risks splitting the ruling coalition vote while potentially consolidating challengers, keeping implied probabilities tight among Morena, PVEM, PAN, and MC. Traders appear to weigh these coalition dynamics and the start of the concurrent federal-local process as key variables that could shift seat projections before the campaign period begins.