Skip to main content
icon for Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

icon for Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

Farage 70–80% 42.4%

Farage 60–70% 36%

Farage 80%+ 13%

Farage 50–60% 7%

Polymarket

$152,291 Vol.

Farage 70–80% 42.4%

Farage 60–70% 36%

Farage 80%+ 13%

Farage 50–60% 7%

Polymarket

$152,291 Vol.

Farage <40%

$14,224 Vol.

2%

Farage 40–50%

$15,766 Vol.

2%

Farage 50–60%

$18,495 Vol.

7%

Farage 60–70%

$25,320 Vol.

36%

Farage 70–80%

$40,794 Vol.

42%

Farage 80%+

$37,693 Vol.

13%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Farage's resignation from the Clacton seat on 8 July 2026 to trigger a by-election amid parliamentary scrutiny over an undeclared £5 million gift has produced a contest with no major-party candidates and a record 34 entrants, mostly independents and fringe figures. This structure concentrates support for the Reform UK leader in his former stronghold, where he secured 46% in 2024. Recent local polling points to a potential 73% share on low turnout, aligning with trader pricing that places the highest probability on 70–80%. The spread across 60–70% and 80%+ brackets reflects uncertainty over whether vote fragmentation or turnout patterns will compress or inflate his result ahead of the 13 August vote.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.

This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volume
$152,291
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Farage's resignation from the Clacton seat on 8 July 2026 to trigger a by-election amid parliamentary scrutiny over an undeclared £5 million gift has produced a contest with no major-party candidates and a record 34 entrants, mostly independents and fringe figures. This structure concentrates support for the Reform UK leader in his former stronghold, where he secured 46% in 2024. Recent local polling points to a potential 73% share on low turnout, aligning with trader pricing that places the highest probability on 70–80%. The spread across 60–70% and 80%+ brackets reflects uncertainty over whether vote fragmentation or turnout patterns will compress or inflate his result ahead of the 13 August vote.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.

This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volume
$152,291
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 6 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Farage 70–80%" sa 42%, sinusundan ng "Farage 60–70%" sa 36%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 42¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 42% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %" ay naka-generate ng $152.3K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Jul 8, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %," i-browse ang 6 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %" ay "Farage 70–80%" sa 42%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 42% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Farage 60–70%" sa 36%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.