Farage's resignation from the Clacton seat on 8 July 2026 to trigger a by-election amid parliamentary scrutiny over an undeclared £5 million gift has produced a contest with no major-party candidates and a record 34 entrants, mostly independents and fringe figures. This structure concentrates support for the Reform UK leader in his former stronghold, where he secured 46% in 2024. Recent local polling points to a potential 73% share on low turnout, aligning with trader pricing that places the highest probability on 70–80%. The spread across 60–70% and 80%+ brackets reflects uncertainty over whether vote fragmentation or turnout patterns will compress or inflate his result ahead of the 13 August vote.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFarage 70–80% 42.4%
Farage 60–70% 36%
Farage 80%+ 13%
Farage 50–60% 7%
$152,291 Vol.
$152,291 Vol.
Farage <40%
2%
Farage 40–50%
2%
Farage 50–60%
7%
Farage 60–70%
36%
Farage 70–80%
42%
Farage 80%+
13%
Farage 70–80% 42.4%
Farage 60–70% 36%
Farage 80%+ 13%
Farage 50–60% 7%
$152,291 Vol.
$152,291 Vol.
Farage <40%
2%
Farage 40–50%
2%
Farage 50–60%
7%
Farage 60–70%
36%
Farage 70–80%
42%
Farage 80%+
13%
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Farage's resignation from the Clacton seat on 8 July 2026 to trigger a by-election amid parliamentary scrutiny over an undeclared £5 million gift has produced a contest with no major-party candidates and a record 34 entrants, mostly independents and fringe figures. This structure concentrates support for the Reform UK leader in his former stronghold, where he secured 46% in 2024. Recent local polling points to a potential 73% share on low turnout, aligning with trader pricing that places the highest probability on 70–80%. The spread across 60–70% and 80%+ brackets reflects uncertainty over whether vote fragmentation or turnout patterns will compress or inflate his result ahead of the 13 August vote.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update

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