China conducted a submarine-launched ballistic missile test on July 6, 2026, firing a JL-2 or JL-3 from the South China Sea into the Pacific with a simulated warhead over roughly 7,300 km as part of routine annual training. Beijing notified relevant parties in advance, described the event as non-targeted, and framed it within standard PLA naval exercises coinciding with joint drills involving Russia. No additional ballistic missile launches have occurred since, amid ongoing but stable US-China diplomatic channels and Taiwan-related gray-zone activities without acute escalation signals. Traders price an 82% chance of no further launch by year-end because routine testing cycles, notification practices, and absence of crisis triggers point to limited near-term activity, consistent with historical patterns of infrequent open-water demonstrations.