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icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
Teknolohiya·Big Tech

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
Teknolohiya·Big Tech

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

Oct 1

Jan 1, 2027

Oct 1

Jan 1, 2027

$182,315 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$182,315 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 1520

$32,293 Vol.

95%

↑ 1530

$12,408 Vol.

40%

↑ 1540

$5,025 Vol.

20%

↑ 1550

$52,328 Vol.

18%

↑ 1600

$25,370 Vol.

5%

↑ 1650

$9,196 Vol.

5%

↑ 1700

$9,036 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".**Recent releases from Anthropic and OpenAI are the main driver of trader sentiment on whether any model hits the target Overall Arena Score by year-end.** Claude Fable 5 and its variants currently lead the main Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1507 Elo, with Opus 5 variants clustered just behind, while OpenAI’s freshly launched GPT-6 Astra has quickly topped specialized arenas such as WebDev/Code at scores exceeding 1790 in early votes. Chinese labs (Qwen3.8, Kimi K3) and Meta’s Muse Spark models add competitive pressure with strong showings at slightly lower ratings. The gap between closed frontier models and open-weight entries has widened to roughly 29 Elo points, reflecting differences in compute and post-training. Upcoming catalysts include additional GPT-6 variants, new Claude iterations, and Google Gemini updates expected before December, alongside ongoing Arena voting that rewards gains in agentic reasoning, tool use, and real-user preference. Scores remain sensitive to new data and model updates.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$182,315
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".**Recent releases from Anthropic and OpenAI are the main driver of trader sentiment on whether any model hits the target Overall Arena Score by year-end.** Claude Fable 5 and its variants currently lead the main Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1507 Elo, with Opus 5 variants clustered just behind, while OpenAI’s freshly launched GPT-6 Astra has quickly topped specialized arenas such as WebDev/Code at scores exceeding 1790 in early votes. Chinese labs (Qwen3.8, Kimi K3) and Meta’s Muse Spark models add competitive pressure with strong showings at slightly lower ratings. The gap between closed frontier models and open-weight entries has widened to roughly 29 Elo points, reflecting differences in compute and post-training. Upcoming catalysts include additional GPT-6 variants, new Claude iterations, and Google Gemini updates expected before December, alongside ongoing Arena voting that rewards gains in agentic reasoning, tool use, and real-user preference. Scores remain sensitive to new data and model updates.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$182,315
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Kaugnay

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Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

67%
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Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

37%
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Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

89%

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 9 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "↑ 1500" sa 100%, sinusundan ng "↑ 1510" sa 100%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 100¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?" ay naka-generate ng $182.3K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Jan 2, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?," i-browse ang 9 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?" ay "↑ 1500" sa 100%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "↑ 1510" sa 100%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.