Tensions in Canada-U.S. relations, including a tariff dispute and public petitions exceeding 200,000 signatures urging the expulsion of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra over his comments on trade and sovereignty, have not prompted official action by the Carney government. Hoekstra remains in post as of mid-October 2026, with recent remarks focusing on monitoring Canadian statements ahead of U.S. midterms rather than any breakdown triggering diplomatic rupture. Expulsion of an ambassador requires a formal persona non grata declaration under the Vienna Convention and represents an escalation far beyond current bilateral friction or parliamentary petitions, which the government has not advanced. Traders assign an 84.5% implied probability to no expulsion by year-end, consistent with historical patterns where such steps occur only amid acute crises rather than prolonged trade negotiations.