The Berlin state election on September 20 produced a preliminary seat total of 158 in the Abgeordnetenhaus under mixed-member proportional rules, with 78 constituency seats plus overhang and leveling mandates to reach proportionality above the statutory minimum of 130. A subsequent recount in the Spandau 1 constituency shifted one direct mandate from the CDU to the AfD, eliminating a CDU overhang seat and triggering a recalculation that reduces leveling mandates for other parties, yielding a likely total of 153 seats. Official confirmation by the Landeswahlausschuss is scheduled for October 12. Trader consensus centers on the 153–157 range as the most probable outcome reflecting this adjustment, while higher totals retain residual probability pending final verification of all direct mandates and vote shares.