**The Bank of Russia’s October 23, 2026, key rate decision faces strong trader consensus for holding steady at 14.00%, reflecting the September 11 pause after ten consecutive cuts since mid-2025.** Recent data showed underlying inflation accelerating to 5–6% annualized amid temporary production capacity constraints, particularly in refining, while headline inflation hovered near 6.3% and the economy expanded at a moderate pace in Q3. Officials cited elevated price pressures and pro-inflationary risks, including fiscal policy parameters to be clarified in the updated budget, as reasons to maintain moderately tight monetary conditions. The baseline forecast keeps 2026 inflation at 6–7% before returning to the 4% target in 2027, supporting limited scope for further easing or any hike. Market pricing aligns with this data-driven caution, with the next move hinging on fresh inflation readings, expectations, and domestic-external risk balance before the October meeting.