Trader consensus heavily favors no change at the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting, with 78% implied probability, reflecting the central bank's measured normalization pace after the June hike to 1%. Recent July inflation data showed headline CPI at 1.9% and core measures near 1.8%, still below the 2% target amid fading energy subsidies, though upside risks from yen weakness, import costs, and AI-driven demand persist. Governor Ueda's signals that rate adjustments remain under review at every meeting, including September, underscore data dependence ahead of the October decision. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and labor market releases, alongside any yen intervention effects that could shift the balance toward a 25 basis point increase priced at 20%.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNo change 78%
25 bps increase 21%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$68,546 Vol.
$68,546 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
21%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 78%
25 bps increase 21%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$68,546 Vol.
$68,546 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,805 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$5,438 Vol.
1%
No change
$29,685 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$23,686 Vol.
21%
50+ bps increase
$6,931 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus heavily favors no change at the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting, with 78% implied probability, reflecting the central bank's measured normalization pace after the June hike to 1%. Recent July inflation data showed headline CPI at 1.9% and core measures near 1.8%, still below the 2% target amid fading energy subsidies, though upside risks from yen weakness, import costs, and AI-driven demand persist. Governor Ueda's signals that rate adjustments remain under review at every meeting, including September, underscore data dependence ahead of the October decision. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and labor market releases, alongside any yen intervention effects that could shift the balance toward a 25 basis point increase priced at 20%.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$68,546Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus heavily favors no change at the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting, with 78% implied probability, reflecting the central bank's measured normalization pace after the June hike to 1%. Recent July inflation data showed headline CPI at 1.9% and core measures near 1.8%, still below the 2% target amid fading energy subsidies, though upside risks from yen weakness, import costs, and AI-driven demand persist. Governor Ueda's signals that rate adjustments remain under review at every meeting, including September, underscore data dependence ahead of the October decision. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and labor market releases, alongside any yen intervention effects that could shift the balance toward a 25 basis point increase priced at 20%.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$68,546Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors no change at the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting, with 78% implied probability, reflecting the central bank's measured normalization pace after the June hike to 1%. Recent July inflation data showed headline CPI at 1.9% and core measures near 1.8%, still below the 2% target amid fading energy subsidies, though upside risks from yen weakness, import costs, and AI-driven demand persist. Governor Ueda's signals that rate adjustments remain under review at every meeting, including September, underscore data dependence ahead of the October decision. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and labor market releases, alongside any yen intervention effects that could shift the balance toward a 25 basis point increase priced at 20%.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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