**The Bank of Israel’s October 21 decision follows three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts that brought the policy rate to 3.25 percent, its lowest level since late 2022.** Low inflation at 1.5 percent in July, well below the midpoint of the 1–3 percent target, combined with a strong shekel and stable risk premium, created room for the recent easing cycle. However, the Monetary Committee has signaled a data-dependent approach, citing moderate underlying domestic activity once overseas production is excluded and lingering geopolitical uncertainty. Most analysts anticipate a pause in October to evaluate inflation prints, fiscal developments, and labor-market trends before any further adjustment, with the next potential move eyed for November after the October 27 elections. This environment underpins the strong market pricing for no change, while modest probabilities for a cut or hike reflect residual uncertainty around near-term data releases and external policy paths.