**Trader consensus in the Copom options market assigns the highest implied probability (60.5%) to a 25 basis point Selic cut at the November 2026 meeting, followed by no change (33.5%).** Recent weaker-than-expected activity and inflation readings have increased scope for further easing after the August 25 bp reduction to 14.00%. Market participants are also pricing in political uncertainty ahead of the October presidential election, where a tighter race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro has raised prospects of policy shifts that could support a longer or accelerated easing cycle into 2027. The BCB remains data-dependent with an upward-tilted inflation risk balance and elevated long-term expectations, keeping the path conditional on incoming labor-market, fiscal, and price data. Focus survey projections have held the year-end Selic at 13.75%, consistent with one or two additional quarter-point moves. The September meeting and post-election clarity represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update25 bps decrease 61%
No Change 33%
50+ bps decrease 5.6%
25 bps increase <1%
$13,218 Vol.
$13,218 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase
1%
No Change
33%
25 bps decrease
61%
50+ bps decrease
6%
25 bps decrease 61%
No Change 33%
50+ bps decrease 5.6%
25 bps increase <1%
$13,218 Vol.
$13,218 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
50+ bps increase
$1,160 Vol.
<1%
25 bps increase
$1,583 Vol.
1%
No Change
$6,705 Vol.
33%
25 bps decrease
$2,219 Vol.
61%
50+ bps decrease
$1,551 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Trader consensus in the Copom options market assigns the highest implied probability (60.5%) to a 25 basis point Selic cut at the November 2026 meeting, followed by no change (33.5%).** Recent weaker-than-expected activity and inflation readings have increased scope for further easing after the August 25 bp reduction to 14.00%. Market participants are also pricing in political uncertainty ahead of the October presidential election, where a tighter race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro has raised prospects of policy shifts that could support a longer or accelerated easing cycle into 2027.
The BCB remains data-dependent with an upward-tilted inflation risk balance and elevated long-term expectations, keeping the path conditional on incoming labor-market, fiscal, and price data. Focus survey projections have held the year-end Selic at 13.75%, consistent with one or two additional quarter-point moves. The September meeting and post-election clarity represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Volume
$13,218Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Trader consensus in the Copom options market assigns the highest implied probability (60.5%) to a 25 basis point Selic cut at the November 2026 meeting, followed by no change (33.5%).** Recent weaker-than-expected activity and inflation readings have increased scope for further easing after the August 25 bp reduction to 14.00%. Market participants are also pricing in political uncertainty ahead of the October presidential election, where a tighter race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro has raised prospects of policy shifts that could support a longer or accelerated easing cycle into 2027.
The BCB remains data-dependent with an upward-tilted inflation risk balance and elevated long-term expectations, keeping the path conditional on incoming labor-market, fiscal, and price data. Focus survey projections have held the year-end Selic at 13.75%, consistent with one or two additional quarter-point moves. The September meeting and post-election clarity represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$13,218Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus in the Copom options market assigns the highest implied probability (60.5%) to a 25 basis point Selic cut at the November 2026 meeting, followed by no change (33.5%).** Recent weaker-than-expected activity and inflation readings have increased scope for further easing after the August 25 bp reduction to 14.00%. Market participants are also pricing in political uncertainty ahead of the October presidential election, where a tighter race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro has raised prospects of policy shifts that could support a longer or accelerated easing cycle into 2027. The BCB remains data-dependent with an upward-tilted inflation risk balance and elevated long-term expectations, keeping the path conditional on incoming labor-market, fiscal, and price data. Focus survey projections have held the year-end Selic at 13.75%, consistent with one or two additional quarter-point moves. The September meeting and post-election clarity represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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