**Persistent conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has driven the overwhelming market consensus toward 0-5 average daily transits by end-September 2026.** Since the February 28, 2026 escalation, visible commercial traffic has collapsed to roughly 10% of pre-war norms of ~85–125 vessels per day, with AIS-tracked crossings frequently in the single digits to low teens. Reuters and Kpler data showed daily figures such as 9 transits on September 25 (10-day average 18), 4 on September 17, and early-month averages near 3, while oil flows hovered at 7–10 million barrels per day versus prior 16–20 million. High war-risk premiums, attacks on shipping, Iranian permit requirements, and widespread use of “dark” transits (AIS off) have kept measurable activity suppressed despite some Saudi and Iraqi volumes rerouting. Scenarios that could challenge the 0-5 outcome include a sustained de-escalation allowing coordinated daylight passages, verified inclusion of dark-ship traffic in the resolution metric, or rapid resolution of threats that restores higher visible volumes.