Omar Aziz advanced to the October 25 runoff as the clear favorite after placing first in the October 4 round with strong interior support across 53 municipalities, while Professora Maria do Carmo advanced in second after winning Manaus. Recent polling had shown Aziz leading or tied with incumbent Roberto Cidade, who finished third and did not advance. Traders assign Aziz an 86% implied probability of victory, reflecting his consistent edge in statewide surveys, broader geographic reach, and the structural advantage of facing a single opponent in the final round. Maria do Carmo’s lower share aligns with her narrower municipal wins and the challenges of closing the gap in the runoff. Other listed candidates remain negligible as they were eliminated.