Skip to main content
icon for Alcatraz reopened in 2026?
Politika·Bilangguan

Alcatraz reopened in 2026?

icon for Alcatraz reopened in 2026?
Politika·Bilangguan

Alcatraz reopened in 2026?

7% tsansa
Polymarket
BAGO
7% tsansa
Polymarket
BAGO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump's April 2026 budget request for fiscal year 2027 includes $152 million as the initial outlay to convert Alcatraz Island into a federal prison, reviving his May 2025 directive to the Bureau of Prisons, Department of Justice, and other agencies. The proposal remains in the early legislative phase, requiring congressional appropriations amid notable local opposition from San Francisco officials, environmental reviews, and logistical hurdles tied to the site's historic status under the National Park Service. No construction contracts or operational timelines have advanced to support completion within calendar year 2026, consistent with the multi-year process typical for major federal prison projects. Traders assign a 93 percent probability to "No" because these procedural, fiscal, and political constraints make full reopening by the end of the year improbable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,151
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump's April 2026 budget request for fiscal year 2027 includes $152 million as the initial outlay to convert Alcatraz Island into a federal prison, reviving his May 2025 directive to the Bureau of Prisons, Department of Justice, and other agencies. The proposal remains in the early legislative phase, requiring congressional appropriations amid notable local opposition from San Francisco officials, environmental reviews, and logistical hurdles tied to the site's historic status under the National Park Service. No construction contracts or operational timelines have advanced to support completion within calendar year 2026, consistent with the multi-year process typical for major federal prison projects. Traders assign a 93 percent probability to "No" because these procedural, fiscal, and political constraints make full reopening by the end of the year improbable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,151
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Alcatraz reopened in 2026?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng "Yes" o "No" shares batay sa kung naniniwala silang mangyayari ang event na ito. Ang kasalukuyang crowd-sourced probability ay 7% para sa "Yes." Halimbawa, kung ang "Yes" ay naka-presyo sa 7¢, ang market ay kolektibong nagtatakda ng 7% na tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Alcatraz reopened in 2026?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Apr 8, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Alcatraz reopened in 2026?," piliin lang kung naniniwala ka na ang sagot ay "Yes" o "No." Ang bawat panig ay may kasalukuyang presyo na sumasalamin sa implied probability ng market. Ilagay ang iyong halaga at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares at na-resolve ang outcome bilang "Yes," nagbabayad ang bawat share ng $1. Kung na-resolve bilang "No," ang iyong "Yes" shares ay nagkakahalaga ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang probability para sa "Alcatraz reopened in 2026?" ay 7% para sa "Yes." Ibig sabihin nito na kasalukuyang naniniwala ang Polymarket crowd na may 7% tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time batay sa actual trades, na nagbibigay ng patuloy na ina-update na signal kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Alcatraz reopened in 2026?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.