Mailza Assis (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Gladson Cameli's departure, secured 49.76% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, winning 19 of 22 municipalities including the capital and advancing to the October 25 runoff against Alan Rick (Republicanos) at 32.27%. Her broad coalition, established name recognition, and campaign emphasis on education programs, cooperative support, and regional infrastructure have consolidated trader consensus around her commanding position. Other first-round candidates such as Tião Bocalom and Thor Dantas trailed significantly and will not contest the runoff. While her lead appears durable, shifts in turnout, late endorsements, or unexpected voter realignment between rounds could still influence the final outcome.