David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary with a narrow victory over state Rep. Francesca Hong, capturing roughly 39.8% of the vote to her 39.4%. Traders assign overwhelming probability to his win due to the certified results and Hong's concession, which eliminated recount prospects. Key drivers include Crowley's late re-entry as a moderate Milwaukee County executive emphasizing general-election viability against Republican Tom Tiffany, contrasted with Hong's progressive platform that led polls until the final days. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes's withdrawal consolidated some support behind Crowley. A handful of outstanding procedural or certification steps remain the only realistic paths to any shift.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Crowley wins 99.2%
Hong 5–10% <1%
Hong 30%+ <1%
Hong 25–30% <1%
$216,346 Vol.
$216,346 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Hong 30%+
<1%
Hong 25–30%
<1%
Hong 20–25%
<1%
Hong 15–20%
<1%
Hong 10–15%
<1%
Hong 5–10%
1%
Hong <5%
<1%
Crowley wins
99%
Barnes wins
<1%
Crowley wins 99.2%
Hong 5–10% <1%
Hong 30%+ <1%
Hong 25–30% <1%
$216,346 Vol.
$216,346 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Hong 30%+
$80,339 Vol.
<1%
Hong 25–30%
$43,541 Vol.
<1%
Hong 20–25%
$8,559 Vol.
<1%
Hong 15–20%
$4,911 Vol.
<1%
Hong 10–15%
$8,562 Vol.
<1%
Hong 5–10%
$31,881 Vol.
1%
Hong <5%
$17,889 Vol.
<1%
Crowley wins
$18,762 Vol.
99%
Barnes wins
$1,903 Vol.
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary with a narrow victory over state Rep. Francesca Hong, capturing roughly 39.8% of the vote to her 39.4%. Traders assign overwhelming probability to his win due to the certified results and Hong's concession, which eliminated recount prospects. Key drivers include Crowley's late re-entry as a moderate Milwaukee County executive emphasizing general-election viability against Republican Tom Tiffany, contrasted with Hong's progressive platform that led polls until the final days. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes's withdrawal consolidated some support behind Crowley. A handful of outstanding procedural or certification steps remain the only realistic paths to any shift.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 28, 2026, 9:19 PM ET
Volume
$216,346Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 11, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 28, 2026, 9:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary with a narrow victory over state Rep. Francesca Hong, capturing roughly 39.8% of the vote to her 39.4%. Traders assign overwhelming probability to his win due to the certified results and Hong's concession, which eliminated recount prospects. Key drivers include Crowley's late re-entry as a moderate Milwaukee County executive emphasizing general-election viability against Republican Tom Tiffany, contrasted with Hong's progressive platform that led polls until the final days. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes's withdrawal consolidated some support behind Crowley. A handful of outstanding procedural or certification steps remain the only realistic paths to any shift.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$216,346Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 11, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 28, 2026, 9:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary with a narrow victory over state Rep. Francesca Hong, capturing roughly 39.8% of the vote to her 39.4%. Traders assign overwhelming probability to his win due to the certified results and Hong's concession, which eliminated recount prospects. Key drivers include Crowley's late re-entry as a moderate Milwaukee County executive emphasizing general-election viability against Republican Tom Tiffany, contrasted with Hong's progressive platform that led polls until the final days. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes's withdrawal consolidated some support behind Crowley. A handful of outstanding procedural or certification steps remain the only realistic paths to any shift.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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