Éric Zemmour's explicit confirmation in mid-September 2026 that he intends to run for president in 2027 as Reconquête's candidate has anchored trader sentiment, producing the 76.5% implied probability favoring him over Sarah Knafo. The party founder and president directly stated on BFMTV that he is "a candidate for the presidency" and will run, closing off earlier speculation despite Knafo's high visibility from her bestselling book on public finances and media appearances. Knafo has consistently described Zemmour as Reconquête's "natural candidate," while he has used recent events to harden positions on remigration and identity issues ahead of an expected formal announcement this fall. This sequence of public statements and party positioning explains the current market pricing more than any competing internal dynamics.