Skip to main content

Para mag-trade sa US, pumunta sa polymarket.us

icon for 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

icon for 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1st hottest 100.0%

2nd hottest <1%

3rd hottest <1%

4th or lower <1%

Polymarket

$181,149 Vol.

1st hottest 100.0%

2nd hottest <1%

3rd hottest <1%

4th or lower <1%

Polymarket

$181,149 Vol.

1st hottest

$88,121 Vol.

Yes

2nd hottest

$35,805 Vol.

No

3rd hottest

$36,207 Vol.

No

4th or lower

$21,016 Vol.

No

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**Intense early-July heat across North America drove global daily mean surface air temperatures to record levels on one of July 1–3, 2026.** Widespread heat domes produced all-time daily highs from the eastern U.S. to the Plains, with multiple cities exceeding 100–106 °F (38–41 °C) on July 2 and contributing to an exceptional spike in the ERA5 global average. Official reanalysis products from Copernicus and related agencies place one of those three days at the top of the historical daily series, exceeding prior peaks such as July 2024. This outcome aligns with the strong 100 % market-implied probability for “1st hottest.” Realistic challenges remain limited but include final post-processing revisions to the reanalysis dataset or measurement uncertainties in sparsely observed regions that could shift the precise daily ranking by small margins. No subsequent July 2026 days have approached the same global mean, reinforcing the current consensus.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.

Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$181,149
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Na-propose ang outcome: Yes

Walang dispute

Pinal na outcome: Yes

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**Intense early-July heat across North America drove global daily mean surface air temperatures to record levels on one of July 1–3, 2026.** Widespread heat domes produced all-time daily highs from the eastern U.S. to the Plains, with multiple cities exceeding 100–106 °F (38–41 °C) on July 2 and contributing to an exceptional spike in the ERA5 global average. Official reanalysis products from Copernicus and related agencies place one of those three days at the top of the historical daily series, exceeding prior peaks such as July 2024. This outcome aligns with the strong 100 % market-implied probability for “1st hottest.” Realistic challenges remain limited but include final post-processing revisions to the reanalysis dataset or measurement uncertainties in sparsely observed regions that could shift the precise daily ranking by small margins. No subsequent July 2026 days have approached the same global mean, reinforcing the current consensus.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.

Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$181,149
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Na-propose ang outcome: Yes

Walang dispute

Pinal na outcome: Yes

Kaugnay

icon for Will August 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

Will August 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

98%
icon for Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?

99%
icon for Magiging pinakamainit ba ang taon ng 2026 na naitala?

Magiging pinakamainit ba ang taon ng 2026 na naitala?

76%
Oo

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 4 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "1st hottest" sa 100%, sinusundan ng "2nd hottest" sa 0%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 100¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" ay naka-generate ng $181.1K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Jul 6, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?," i-browse ang 4 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" ay "1st hottest" sa 100%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "2nd hottest" sa 0%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.