Houthi territorial gains in September 2026, including seizures of Mokha port, Perim Island, and Hanish islands, have heightened risks at the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, driving the primary catalyst behind trader sentiment on this market. Daily transits have fallen to roughly 15–25 vessels amid selective avoidance by container lines, though tankers and select bulk carriers continue, keeping IMF PortWatch counts above zero. This sustains elevated insurance premiums near 0.75% of hull value per transit, forces rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope that adds 10–14 days and roughly $1 million per voyage, and supports Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Market-implied odds reflect low near-term probability of a full halt, with escalation risks tied to ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions or Saudi responses as key swing factors.