What is a prediction market?

On a prediction market you buy and sell contracts on the outcome of a future event. The price of the contract is the market's view of how likely that outcome is. A contract settles at $1.00 if the outcome happens and at $0.00 if it does not.

01Market question
Polymarket lists a market
on a question with a clear, checkable answer and publishes the resolution terms. Users cannot list their own.
02Peer-to-peer trading
You buy Yes or No
at the price on offer. Another user takes the opposite side.
03Market probability
The price is the forecast.
A contract trading at 70 cents means the market puts the probability at about 70%.
04Market resolution
When the event resolves,
the profitable side is paid $1.00 per contract and the other side is paid nothing.

Interactive example

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates at the next meeting?

Price to buy Yes60¢

The market is putting the probability at roughly 60%.

Yes + No$1.00Example total

Buy Yes60¢

Risk 60¢ to win 40¢

Buy No40¢

Risk 40¢ to win 60¢

Yes and No always add up to $1.00, because exactly one of them pays out. Move the slider to see how the price, the risk, and the payout move together.

Platform overview

Polymarket International at a glance

Polymarket is a prediction market platform built on the blockchain. Participants buy and sell contracts on the outcomes of future events, from elections and geopolitics to financial markets, sports and entertainment, and trades are matched between users, not against the house.

At a glance	Polymarket International Blockchain-based platform
Overview	A non-custodial platform that allows users outside the United States and other restricted jurisdictions to trade in blockchain-based prediction markets. Forecasts available worldwide.
Who can trade	Non-US usersUS traders and others in restricted jurisdictions are prohibited from trading.
Your funds	Non-custodialYou hold your own private keys. Polymarket does not custody or control your funds. Collateral backing an open position is held in a smart contract, not by Polymarket.
Identity	Connect with an email address or a supported self-custody walletSigning up does not require trading; trading not available in restricted jurisdictions. Attribution comes from the on-chain record and other sources. Polymarket requests additional information from top-volume traders.
The trading record	Transparent, public, and permanentOn-chain, immutable, and auditable by anyone, in real time, and forever.
Conduct rules	Monitored and strictly enforcedInsider trading and market manipulation, among other activities, are prohibited and monitored by our team of experts.
Governed by	Terms of UseEnforced by Polymarket. Polymarket refers Terms of Use violations to relevant law enforcement or regulatory authorities when appropriate.

Trading Rules

It is a violation of Polymarket's Terms of Use to do any of the below. Insider trading, and trading by those who can influence the outcome, are strictly prohibited.

The system works because traders are motivated to act on their expertise and trust that no one is gaming the outcome.

Polymarket maintains and enforces rules under its Terms of Use designed to protect the integrity of every market outcome and keep our markets free from deceptive, manipulative, and unfair trading practices.

Do not trade on stolen confidential information.

You may not trade on any contract if you possess confidential information about the outcome or likely outcome of the underlying event, if using that information would violate a preexisting duty or obligation of trust or confidence you owe to another person or entity.

Do not trade on illegal tips.

You may not trade on confidential information that was passed to you by someone who owed a preexisting duty of trust or confidence to someone else, if you know or have reason to know that the person who shared the information would be prohibited from trading on it themselves.

Do not trade on an outcome you can influence.

You may not trade on any contract if you hold a position of authority or influence sufficient to affect the outcome of the underlying event. You also may not trade at the direction of someone who holds such a position.

Prohibited scenarios

Scenario 01

You are an assistant coach on a professional sports team, and you learn that the team's star player has an injury that has not yet been disclosed to the public. The team has confidentiality rules that apply to you. Can you trade on this information?

No. The star player's undisclosed injury is confidential information that belongs to your employer (the team), not you. If you trade on this information before it becomes public, you are breaching a duty to your employer.

Scenario 02

Your friend is the assistant coach on a professional sports team and tells you that the team's star player has an injury that has not been disclosed to the public. Your friend tells you that they cannot trade on the information, but encourages you to. Can you trade on this information?

No. Your friend has a duty to the team to keep the undisclosed injury confidential, and you know that your friend cannot trade on the information themselves. You cannot trade on the tip they passed to you.

Scenario 03

You're the CEO of a public company. There's a Mentions market on whether you'll use a specific word during an upcoming earnings call. Can you trade?

No. You control the outcome of this market, so you're prohibited from trading.

Permitted scenarios

Scenario 01

You sit in a park near the stadium where a sporting event will be held. From the park, you can hear rehearsals and you learn how long the pregame performance of the national anthem will run. Can you trade on this information?

Yes. As long as you do not owe a duty of confidentiality and obtained the information lawfully, you may trade on this information even if others do not have access to the same information.

Scenario 02

You are an amateur meteorologist. You have developed your own forecast model to predict major weather events using publicly-available data. Can you trade on this information?

Yes. Your forecast model is non-public information, but it belongs to you and is based on publicly-available data. You would not breach any pre-existing duty owed to another person or entity by trading on your own forecast model.

Scenario 03

You're following an upcoming election closely and want more information than what's publicly available. You hire a polling firm to run a custom poll using your own methodology and questions. Based on the results, you build a large position on the election market. Can you trade?

Yes. The poll was commissioned by you, with your own money and your own methodology. No one else owns that data, you created it. Acting on research you commissioned yourself is permitted.

Account Conduct

In addition to insider trading, Polymarket's Terms of Use prohibit all types of fraud and market manipulation, including spoofing, wash trading, and fictitious transactions, as well as self-dealing, front-running, information misuse, attempted manipulation, and disruptive practices that undermine the orderly operation of our markets.

01Prohibited conduct

Spoofing

02Prohibited conduct

Wash trading

03Prohibited conduct

Fictitious transactions

04Prohibited conduct

Self-dealing

05Prohibited conduct

Front-running

06Prohibited conduct

Information misuse

07Prohibited conduct

Attempted manipulation

08Prohibited conduct

Disruptive practices

09Prohibited conduct

Fraud

Four things sit behind every market.

All users are subject to Polymarket's Terms of Use. Polymarket maintains a multi-layered monitoring system designed to detect potential violations.

Rules

Written, published, and binding. Insider trading, market manipulation, wash trading, spoofing, self-dealing, and front-running are prohibited under the Terms of Use.

Surveillance

Continuous and multi-layered. Trading and wallet activity is monitored by custom machine-learning models, commercial blockchain analytics, trade surveillance tooling, and open-source research.

In-house team plus external vendors

Investigation

Staffed and documented. Matters are worked by investigators with backgrounds including the FBI, Chainalysis, and Coinbase, and appropriate cases are referred to law enforcement.

Global Intelligence & Investigations Team

Enforcement

Real consequences. Substantiated matters result in wallet-level restriction, legal action, or referral to law enforcement.

Wallet restriction · legal action · referral

01Published results

Enforcement outcomes

As published on polymarket.com/transparency

100+: Referrals to law enforcement.
315+: Wallet details provided.
1st: Prediction markets insider case charged in the United States. April 2026.
100%: Of trades permanently on-chain. By design.

02Public record

Every trade settles on a public blockchain.

The record is permanent and auditable by anyone in real time. Anyone can report suspicious activity to integrity@polymarket.com, and those reports enter the same queue as Polymarket's own detections.

Ten facts about how Polymarket International operates

As published on polymarket.com/transparency

Polymarket International enforces strict market integrity standards.
Restricted-jurisdiction trading is prohibited and actively detected.
Every trade is permanently recorded on a public blockchain.
Multi-account coordination has dedicated detection.
Detection combines machine learning, commercial analytics, and federal-background investigators.
All trades are peer-to-peer.
Wash trading, spoofing, and manipulation are prohibited and monitored.
Wallets are screened for sanctions and illicit-finance risk.
Polymarket enforces violations, including law enforcement referrals.
Open investigations stay confidential.

On the record

On April 23, 2026, the Department of Justice and the CFTC each announced charges against a US Army service member who allegedly used classified information to trade event contracts listed on Polymarket.com. Polymarket cooperated with the investigation, and the US Attorney acknowledged that cooperation. The charges are allegations and the matter is pending.

01Official release

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

“This case marks the first time the CFTC has charged insider trading involving event contracts.”

CFTC Charges U.S. Service Member with Insider Trading in Nicolás Maduro-Related Event Contracts

02Official release

U.S. Department of Justice, SDNY

“Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain.”

U.S. Soldier Charged With Using Classified Information To Profit From Prediction Market Bets

What user protections are available?

Self-custody, a public record, wallet screening, and rules on how members treat each other.

01Self-custody

You hold your own funds

Polymarket does not custody or control your funds. You hold your own private keys, and collateral backing an open position is held in a smart contract, not by Polymarket.

02Public record

The record is public

Every trade is permanently recorded on a public blockchain, and is auditable by anyone in real time.

03Risk checks

Wallet screening

Wallets are screened for sanctions exposure and illicit-finance risk. Trading from restricted jurisdictions is prohibited and actively detected.

04Human review

Reports reach a person

Anyone can report suspicious activity to integrity@polymarket.com. Reports are logged, read by the Global Intelligence & Investigations Team, and enter the same queue as Polymarket's own detections.

05Self-exclusion

Self-exclusion

Take a break from trading for a term you choose, up to lifetime. It covers trading and perps.

Polymarket International Community Guidelines

These rules cover market comments, market chat, Squads, profiles, and the Polymarket International Discord.

You can disagree with anyone here. Argue about markets, criticize politicians, say a price is wrong, tell someone their thesis is bad. These rules are about how you treat people, not which opinions you hold.

Don't

Attack people for who they are. No slurs, no hate symbols, no attacks based on race, ethnicity, colour, national origin, caste, religion, sex, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, disability, serious medical condition, immigration status, veteran status, or age. No denying mass atrocities. No accounts or Squads built around hate.
Harass anyone. No targeting a person, no pile-ons, no following someone around, no coming back after they block you. Criticizing a public figure is fine. Going after a private trader is not. Abusing athletes, referees, election officials, or candidates over a market is harassment.
Threaten violence or promote extremism. No threats, no celebrating harm, no inciting it. Don't promote or recruit for violent groups. Don't share extremist propaganda, including to condemn it.
Sexualize minors. Real, drawn or AI-generated. No depictions of or communications relating to sexual contact with or solicitation of a minor. We report this to the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children and to law enforcement every time, on every surface, including private ones. There is no appeal.
Post private information. No addresses, phone numbers, IDs, SSNs, financial details, or linking a wallet to a person. No intimate images of anyone without their consent. Don't try to get into someone else's account.
Manipulate markets. No coordinating to move a price. No signal or pump groups. No trading on or posting of confidential inside information against our rules. No selling picks. No promising returns or calling a trade risk-free. No faked screenshots of resolutions, sources, or P&L.

The exchange handles trading conduct under its own rules. A post can be removed here and separately cost you your trading access.
Scam or impersonate. Don't pretend to be a person, entity, or account that you are not, including but not limited to Polymarket, our staff, another user, or a market's resolution source. Labeled parody is fine. No phishing links, fake support pages, impersonation of staff, etc.
Spam. No repeat posts, no tagging markets your post has nothing to do with, no advertising, no false reports.

By surface

Market comments and live chat

Across the app and website. Public and fast, so this is where we're strictest.

Certain words and slurs cannot be posted at all.
Links are limited, and new accounts can't post them.
During busy markets we may slow chat down or tighten the filters.

Polymarket International Discord

Discord's rules apply first and Discord enforces them. Ours apply on top. The server has extra rules of its own.

We moderate public channels. We can't see or act on DMs between members, so use Discord's report and block tools, and turn off DMs from server members if you'd rather not be contacted. Tell us if someone impersonating Polymarket messages you.

Reporting, blocking, appeals

Report from the ⋯ menu on any message, comment, profile, or Squad. On Discord, right-click and report, or ping a mod. Scams go to #security-alerts.

Block from the same menu. You'll stop seeing that person.

Appeal with the link in your notice, or email trust@polymarket.com. You can add context, and we'll tell you why we decided what we did. If we got it wrong, we put the content back and clear your standing.

Don't try to handle a bad actor yourself. Report it.

Nothing here is trading advice. Polymarket does not give trading advice. Posts are other members' opinions, not ours. Your trades are your own.

See something off in a market?

Polymarket International

Report wallets that appear to be trading together, positions taken immediately before an event, a resolution inconsistent with its stated source, or any other conduct prohibited under the Terms of Use.

Include what you have: the market link, the wallet address, the transaction hash, and what you observed. Partial information is still useful. Questions about the rules need no evidence at all.

The rules that set out what conduct is prohibited are published in full above.

Report suspicious activity

integrity@polymarket.com