Recent semiconductor export surges have generated record current account surpluses, including $46.1 billion in August, prompting exporters to sell dollars and supporting the won near 1,340-1,342 against the USD as of early October 2026. This structural supply of foreign currency has outweighed short-term pressures from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt—evident in the September 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range amid persistent inflation concerns—and elevated oil prices near $90-100 per barrel stemming from Middle East tensions. The resulting interest-rate differential and risk-off flows from foreign equity selling have capped further won gains. Traders are monitoring October FOMC and Bank of Korea decisions, September-October export releases, and any shifts in Treasury yields or geopolitical developments that could alter the balance between Korea’s external surplus and U.S. monetary policy expectations.