Tesla’s stalled progress on California permits drives the 81% market-implied odds against a robotaxi launch by year-end. The company holds only an entry-level DMV Autonomous Vehicle Testing Permit requiring safety drivers and has logged zero autonomous test miles in the state in 2025, falling far short of the 50,000 supervised miles needed before applying for driverless testing. Regulators at the DMV and CPUC confirm no applications for unsupervised operations or paid passenger service have been submitted, while unsupervised Full Self-Driving remains delayed until at least Q4 2026. These multi-step regulatory thresholds and historical shortfalls in California data collection create substantial barriers, though expedited approvals or rapid mileage gains could theoretically alter the trajectory in the remaining months.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว19% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
19% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla’s stalled progress on California permits drives the 81% market-implied odds against a robotaxi launch by year-end. The company holds only an entry-level DMV Autonomous Vehicle Testing Permit requiring safety drivers and has logged zero autonomous test miles in the state in 2025, falling far short of the 50,000 supervised miles needed before applying for driverless testing. Regulators at the DMV and CPUC confirm no applications for unsupervised operations or paid passenger service have been submitted, while unsupervised Full Self-Driving remains delayed until at least Q4 2026. These multi-step regulatory thresholds and historical shortfalls in California data collection create substantial barriers, though expedited approvals or rapid mileage gains could theoretically alter the trajectory in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 30, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,064วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 30, 2026, 1:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla’s stalled progress on California permits drives the 81% market-implied odds against a robotaxi launch by year-end. The company holds only an entry-level DMV Autonomous Vehicle Testing Permit requiring safety drivers and has logged zero autonomous test miles in the state in 2025, falling far short of the 50,000 supervised miles needed before applying for driverless testing. Regulators at the DMV and CPUC confirm no applications for unsupervised operations or paid passenger service have been submitted, while unsupervised Full Self-Driving remains delayed until at least Q4 2026. These multi-step regulatory thresholds and historical shortfalls in California data collection create substantial barriers, though expedited approvals or rapid mileage gains could theoretically alter the trajectory in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,064วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 30, 2026, 1:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s stalled progress on California permits drives the 81% market-implied odds against a robotaxi launch by year-end. The company holds only an entry-level DMV Autonomous Vehicle Testing Permit requiring safety drivers and has logged zero autonomous test miles in the state in 2025, falling far short of the 50,000 supervised miles needed before applying for driverless testing. Regulators at the DMV and CPUC confirm no applications for unsupervised operations or paid passenger service have been submitted, while unsupervised Full Self-Driving remains delayed until at least Q4 2026. These multi-step regulatory thresholds and historical shortfalls in California data collection create substantial barriers, though expedited approvals or rapid mileage gains could theoretically alter the trajectory in the remaining months.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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