Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have driven sharply reduced shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, the primary catalyst for current market-implied odds on daily transits by August 31. Traffic has averaged roughly 5–12 vessels per day in late August, versus historical norms above 100, amid blockades, vessel attacks, Iranian routing rules, blacklists of 45 tankers, and expanded ship-to-ship shuttling that lifted flows to around 6–8 million barrels per day from mid-July lows. Brent crude has held near $96–97 per barrel, embedding a persistent geopolitical premium of roughly $4–5 over WTI and war-risk insurance rates several times pre-crisis levels. Traders are monitoring U.S. naval escorts, potential Oman corridor agreements, and fresh sanctions for any late-August volume spikes before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
$177,642 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
30+
1%
40+
<1%
50+
2%
60+
<1%
80+
<1%
100+
<1%
$177,642 ปริมาณ
30+
$49,950 ปริมาณ
1%
40+
$46,860 ปริมาณ
<1%
50+
$27,138 ปริมาณ
2%
60+
$31,889 ปริมาณ
<1%
80+
$11,832 ปริมาณ
<1%
100+
$9,973 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have driven sharply reduced shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, the primary catalyst for current market-implied odds on daily transits by August 31. Traffic has averaged roughly 5–12 vessels per day in late August, versus historical norms above 100, amid blockades, vessel attacks, Iranian routing rules, blacklists of 45 tankers, and expanded ship-to-ship shuttling that lifted flows to around 6–8 million barrels per day from mid-July lows. Brent crude has held near $96–97 per barrel, embedding a persistent geopolitical premium of roughly $4–5 over WTI and war-risk insurance rates several times pre-crisis levels. Traders are monitoring U.S. naval escorts, potential Oman corridor agreements, and fresh sanctions for any late-August volume spikes before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 31, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$177,642วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 10:15 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have driven sharply reduced shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, the primary catalyst for current market-implied odds on daily transits by August 31. Traffic has averaged roughly 5–12 vessels per day in late August, versus historical norms above 100, amid blockades, vessel attacks, Iranian routing rules, blacklists of 45 tankers, and expanded ship-to-ship shuttling that lifted flows to around 6–8 million barrels per day from mid-July lows. Brent crude has held near $96–97 per barrel, embedding a persistent geopolitical premium of roughly $4–5 over WTI and war-risk insurance rates several times pre-crisis levels. Traders are monitoring U.S. naval escorts, potential Oman corridor agreements, and fresh sanctions for any late-August volume spikes before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$177,642วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 10:15 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have driven sharply reduced shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, the primary catalyst for current market-implied odds on daily transits by August 31. Traffic has averaged roughly 5–12 vessels per day in late August, versus historical norms above 100, amid blockades, vessel attacks, Iranian routing rules, blacklists of 45 tankers, and expanded ship-to-ship shuttling that lifted flows to around 6–8 million barrels per day from mid-July lows. Brent crude has held near $96–97 per barrel, embedding a persistent geopolitical premium of roughly $4–5 over WTI and war-risk insurance rates several times pre-crisis levels. Traders are monitoring U.S. naval escorts, potential Oman corridor agreements, and fresh sanctions for any late-August volume spikes before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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