Russia continues to rely on its year-round conscription system and contract recruitment to sustain operations in Ukraine rather than a new nationwide forced mobilization decree like the 2022 partial call-up. Officials announced a standard fall draft of 120,000 conscripts starting October 10, with repeated assurances they will not deploy to combat zones, while President Putin and spokespeople have dismissed mobilization rumors as nonsense multiple times since summer 2026. Ukrainian intelligence reports point to administrative preparations and plans for up to 300,000 additional personnel across 2026-2027 to address high casualties and slowing voluntary enlistment, yet Moscow has instead expanded authorized force levels through smaller decrees and tightened recruitment measures. Trader assessments reflect ongoing uncertainty over whether manpower shortfalls will force a public announcement before key deadlines.