Fireblocks, MetaMask, Robinhood launch Open Transaction Layer (OTL)

June 30 dips to 2%3%

MetaMask, Fireblocks, and Robinhood announced the Open Transaction Layer (OTL), an open protocol stack for coordinating on-chain financial transactions, expanding MetaMask's financial services ecosystem.

MetaMask launches US payment card with onchain rewards via Mastercard partnership

MetaMask expanded its product ecosystem with a US payment card offering onchain rewards, enhancing user engagement but unrelated to the $MASK token launch timing.

Market speculation peaks on potential MetaMask MASK token launch timing

December 31, 2026 rises to 33%2%

Market prices peaked around mid-May 2026 reflecting speculation on the MASK token launch timing, with some forecasts pointing to Q3-Q4 2026 aligned with a possible ConsenSys IPO. However, no official token generation event occurred, keeping probabilities for earlier launches low.

npm invalidates granular access tokens to prevent supply chain attacks

December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%

Following the Mini Shai-Hulud attack, npm invalidated tokens with write access bypassing 2FA to enhance security. This action reflects ongoing security challenges in the ecosystem but does not affect the MASK token launch directly.

Consensys delays $7B IPO to fall 2026

Consensys postponed its planned IPO to fall 2026, likely delaying the $MASK token launch which is expected to coincide with the IPO, reducing near-term token launch probability.

Security alert: Mini Shai-Hulud worm poisons hundreds of npm and PyPI packages

December 31, 2026 rises to 44%4%

A major supply chain attack affected npm and PyPI packages, prompting MetaMask and security teams to invalidate tokens and enhance protections. This incident increased security concerns but did not directly impact the MASK token launch timeline.

MetaMask Rewards Relaunches with New Benefits Tab

December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%9%

MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and partner airdrops, keeping users engaged while the native token remained unreleased.

MetaMask Rewards Returns with Season 2 and New Benefits Tab

December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%9%

MetaMask relaunched its Rewards program with trading challenges and a new Benefits tab, reviving long-term speculation for a future MASK token allocation.

MetaMask Rewards program relaunches with new trading challenges and benefits

December 31, 2026 dips to 28%2%

MetaMask relaunched its Rewards program with enhanced features including trading challenges and token allocations, signaling ongoing ecosystem development but no official $MASK token launch yet.

MetaMask Relaunches Rewards Program with New Trading Challenges and Benefits

December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%9%

MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with new challenges and a Benefits tab, signaling that the platform is still focusing on user engagement programs rather than an immediate token launch.

MetaMask Rewards Returns with New Benefits Tab

December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%6%

MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and a new Benefits tab, but without any concrete timeline for a native token launch.

MetaMask co-founder Dan Finlay steps down after a decade

Dan Finlay's departure from Consensys marked a leadership change at MetaMask, possibly impacting project timelines including the token launch, contributing to market uncertainty.

MetaMask product update adds multichain support, still no token launch date

June 30 drops to 2%7%

MetaMask released a product‑update on April 23, 2026 highlighting new multichain features but giving no token‑related timeline. The reiteration of “no token yet” reinforced the market’s bearish view on a 2025 launch, keeping the June‑30 outcome near its 2 % floor.

SocGen-FORGE launches USD CoinVertible stablecoin on MetaMask

Societe Generale-FORGE integrated its USD CoinVertible (USDCV) stablecoin into MetaMask, adding a circulating token to the wallet ecosystem. This institutional stablecoin launch increased MetaMask's token offerings but was unrelated to the MASK token launch, reflecting broader wallet utility expansion.

MetaMask Card goes live in the US, signaling broader product rollout

December 31, 2026 jumps to 57%12%

MetaMask announced the general availability of its Card in the US on March 17, 2026. While unrelated to the token itself, the news briefly revived optimism about the ecosystem’s momentum, nudging the Yes probability for the December‑2026 outcome up to a short‑term high of 57 % before reverting.

MetaMask officially launches MASK token airdrop

MetaMask began the official $MASK token airdrop to eligible wallet holders, confirming the token launch but well past the 2025 deadline. This event validated the token's existence and distribution but caused market prices to adjust to the delayed timeline.

MetaMask MASK token airdrop goes live for eligible wallets

December 31, 2026 surges to 45%15%

MetaMask officially launched the $MASK token airdrop for eligible wallet holders, aiming to decentralize governance. This event marked the first public distribution of the native token, though the token was not yet broadly tradable, impacting market expectations.

MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Claim Window Closes

September 30 drops to 22%12%

The official closing of the Season 1 claim window and the transition to a waiting period for Season 2 solidified expectations that a token launch would not occur in the first half of 2026.

MetaMask Closes Season 1 Claim Window as Focus Shifts to Future Seasons

September 30 dips to 18%4%

MetaMask officially closed the claim window for Season 1 rewards, confirming that the immediate distribution phase was over without any MASK token launch, further depressing early 2026 launch odds.

MetaMask Closes Season 1 Claim Window

December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%

MetaMask officially closed the claim window for Season 1 rewards, confirming no native token was generated during this cycle and shifting expectations further out.

MetaMask Launches Self-Custodial Debit Card in the US

December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%

MetaMask announced the general availability of the MetaMask Card in the US in partnership with Mastercard, shifting focus toward product utility rather than token generation.

Phishing Scams Impersonate MetaMask Token Launch and Airdrop

December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%

Malicious sites claiming a MetaMask token launch was live caused confusion and volatility in prediction markets as users navigated fake claim portals.

MetaMask roadmap update pushes token launch to Q2 2026

December 31, 2026 plunges to 31%19%

On February 9, 2026 MetaMask posted an update on its roadmap, confirming that the native token would not be released before the end of Q2 2026. The clarification pushed the market’s Yes probability for the December‑2026 outcome down to the low‑30 % range and accelerated the decline toward the June‑30 outcome.

MetaMask Card Launches in the US in Partnership with Mastercard

December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%

MetaMask announced the general availability of its self-custodial debit card in the US, shifting focus toward product utility rather than immediate token generation.

MetaMask Announces General Availability of MetaMask Card in the US

December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%

MetaMask announced the general availability of its self-custodial debit card in the US in partnership with Mastercard, shifting focus to product utility over token launch.

MetaMask integrates 200+ tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo

MetaMask expanded wallet functionality by integrating tokenized US stocks, ETFs, and commodities, enhancing user offerings but unrelated to the $MASK token launch timing.

MetaMask Integrates Ondo Finance to Offer Tokenized US Stocks and ETFs

December 31, 2026 drops to 37%13%

MetaMask expanded its wallet features to support over 200 tokenized U.S. securities via Ondo Global Markets, shifting focus toward real-world asset integrations.

Consensys lawsuit dismissal by SEC clears regulatory uncertainty

In early 2026, the SEC dismissed its lawsuit against Consensys regarding MetaMask's staking features, reducing regulatory risk but no immediate token launch followed, maintaining market uncertainty.

No official MetaMask token generation event or public token launch by early 2026

Despite ongoing speculation and community anticipation, no official token generation event or publicly tradable MetaMask token was launched by early 2026, leading to a steady decline in market odds across all resolution dates.

Market sentiment declines as no $MASK token launch occurs by early 2026

June 30 plunges to 15%17%

Despite earlier confirmations and infrastructure signals, no official $MASK token launch or airdrop occurred by early 2026, causing market prices for token launch by June and September 2026 to fall sharply. The delay reflects regulatory caution and strategic timing considerations by ConsenSys.

Analysis reveals delay in MetaMask $MASK token launch amid regulatory and IPO considerations

December 31, 2026 dips to 30%3%

Despite earlier confirmations, no $MASK token launch occurred by early 2026. Analysis suggests delays are due to regulatory strategy and Consensys's planned IPO, with the token launch window pushed to late 2026 or beyond.

No MetaMask token launch or airdrop by late January 2026, causing market decline

September 30 plunges to 9%23%

Despite earlier optimism, by late January 2026 no $MASK token launch or airdrop had occurred, revealing regulatory and strategic delays, which led to a sharp decline in market prices for token launch probability.

MetaMask ends Rewards Season 1 without announcing token launch

June 30 plunges to 13%65%

MetaMask posted on X that Season 1 of the Rewards program had ended, noting that the $30 M prize pool was distributed in LINEA tokens. The lack of a token‑generation event (TGE) after the season’s close dampened expectations, causing the Yes probability for the June‑30 outcome to fall from 78 % (early Jan) to 13 % by late January.

MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends, claim window closes

The conclusion of the first Rewards season marked a milestone in MetaMask's token launch preparations, but no token was launched, leading to market price declines reflecting uncertainty.

MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends, claim window closes

June 30 drops to 11%8%

The first season of MetaMask Rewards ended, distributing $LINEA tokens but no $MASK token launch occurred. This event marked a key milestone, with points carrying over to Season 2, but also increased market skepticism about a 2025 token launch.

MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends with no $MASK token launch

September 30 drops to 22%10%

The conclusion of the first MetaMask Rewards season without a token generation event or airdrop disappointed the market, leading to a significant drop in the probability of a 2025 token launch. User sentiment was negative due to rewards being mainly in $LINEA tokens, not $MASK.

MetaMask CEO last mentions token launch; no new TGE signals emerge

September 30 drops to 65%12%

The last public mention by ConsenSys CEO regarding MetaMask token launch occurred in October 2025, with no new official Token Generation Event signals by January 2026. This absence of concrete launch developments led to further decline in market probabilities.

MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support after 10-month wait

MetaMask officially launched native Bitcoin support, expanding its multichain wallet capabilities and enhancing user experience, but this did not include launching a native token.

MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support, expanding wallet utility

MetaMask announced native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold and trade BTC directly in the wallet. This expansion of features was part of broader ecosystem growth, indirectly supporting the token launch narrative but not triggering an immediate launch.

MetaMask launches native Bitcoin support expanding multichain capabilities

December 31, 2026 plunges to 35%15%

MetaMask added native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold and trade BTC directly in the wallet. This product expansion enhanced MetaMask’s ecosystem but did not include a native token launch, contributing to market uncertainty and declining token launch odds.

MetaMask Launches Native Bitcoin Support to Expand Beyond Ethereum

June 30 jumps to 63%7%

MetaMask introduced native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold and trade BTC directly. Swapping BTC earned users reward points, which was seen as another step toward a native token launch.

MetaMask Launches Native Bitcoin Support to Expand Beyond Ethereum

September 30 drops to 71%6%

MetaMask officially added native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to hold, send, receive, and trade BTC directly, which further integrated users into its rewards ecosystem.

MetaMask Introduces Native Bitcoin Support to Expand Multi-Chain Capabilities

June 30 jumps to 63%7%

MetaMask rolled out native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to manage BTC directly inside the wallet, boosting product utility and engagement metrics ahead of potential tokenization.

MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support and Integrates Rewards Points

September 30 jumps to 77%6%

MetaMask expanded its multi-chain capabilities by adding native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to earn MetaMask Rewards points for swapping into BTC. This product expansion initially kept hopes alive for a near-term token launch.

Polymarket Volume Surges on MetaMask Token Launch Speculation

September 30 surges to 90%39%

Speculation around the MASK token reached a peak in early November following the registration of claim domains and the launch of the Rewards program, driving up the odds of a token launch.

MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and Perps Launch Fuel Token Speculation

June 30 surges to 71%21%

The launch of MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and MetaMask Perps in October 2025, alongside the discovery of a password-protected claim domain, sparked intense speculation about an upcoming token launch.

MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Launches Fueling MASK Token Speculation

June 30 surges to 78%28%

The launch of MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and the discovery of a password-protected claim domain triggered a sharp rise in prediction market odds for a near-term token launch.