China maintains steady grey-zone pressure on Taiwan through persistent coast guard patrols east of the island and maritime enforcement operations, but shows no visible large-scale amphibious buildup or invasion preparations as of mid-August 2026. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang drills tested reservist mobilization and supply resilience under blockade scenarios, underscoring defensive readiness without triggering escalation. Traders assign 99.2% probability to no invasion by September 30 because full-scale landing operations require observable force concentrations and logistical indicators absent from current activity. The short remaining window further reduces scope for sudden shifts, though miscalculation during ongoing patrols or an unforeseen provocative move by either side remains a low-probability catalyst that could alter assessments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว<1% โอกาส
$1,911,120 ปริมาณ
$1,911,120 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
<1% โอกาส
$1,911,120 ปริมาณ
$1,911,120 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China maintains steady grey-zone pressure on Taiwan through persistent coast guard patrols east of the island and maritime enforcement operations, but shows no visible large-scale amphibious buildup or invasion preparations as of mid-August 2026. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang drills tested reservist mobilization and supply resilience under blockade scenarios, underscoring defensive readiness without triggering escalation. Traders assign 99.2% probability to no invasion by September 30 because full-scale landing operations require observable force concentrations and logistical indicators absent from current activity. The short remaining window further reduces scope for sudden shifts, though miscalculation during ongoing patrols or an unforeseen provocative move by either side remains a low-probability catalyst that could alter assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,911,120วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China maintains steady grey-zone pressure on Taiwan through persistent coast guard patrols east of the island and maritime enforcement operations, but shows no visible large-scale amphibious buildup or invasion preparations as of mid-August 2026. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang drills tested reservist mobilization and supply resilience under blockade scenarios, underscoring defensive readiness without triggering escalation. Traders assign 99.2% probability to no invasion by September 30 because full-scale landing operations require observable force concentrations and logistical indicators absent from current activity. The short remaining window further reduces scope for sudden shifts, though miscalculation during ongoing patrols or an unforeseen provocative move by either side remains a low-probability catalyst that could alter assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,911,120วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China maintains steady grey-zone pressure on Taiwan through persistent coast guard patrols east of the island and maritime enforcement operations, but shows no visible large-scale amphibious buildup or invasion preparations as of mid-August 2026. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang drills tested reservist mobilization and supply resilience under blockade scenarios, underscoring defensive readiness without triggering escalation. Traders assign 99.2% probability to no invasion by September 30 because full-scale landing operations require observable force concentrations and logistical indicators absent from current activity. The short remaining window further reduces scope for sudden shifts, though miscalculation during ongoing patrols or an unforeseen provocative move by either side remains a low-probability catalyst that could alter assessments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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