Trump has exercised broad clemency authority since taking office in January 2025, issuing a mass pardon covering roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants on inauguration day, followed by pardons for 77 fake electors in November 2025 and dozens of individual grants through mid-2026 for white-collar offenses, donors, and political allies. These actions, often bypassing standard DOJ review in favor of direct outreach to influencers and supporters, have already addressed many high-profile cases tied to the 2020 election and related investigations. Trader focus on remaining candidates through December 2026 reflects ongoing patterns of relief for figures with financial or political connections, alongside continued applications from individuals such as Sam Bankman-Fried. Scheduled executive actions, donor advocacy, and any further policy priorities in the final months of 2026 represent the main variables that could shift additional probabilities before the market resolves.