**Trader consensus on the first Democrat to announce a 2028 presidential bid reflects a wide-open field with no formal declarations yet, keeping "Other" at 50%.** Andy Beshear leads listed options at 28.5% due to his active 2026 midterm surrogacy in early states like Iowa, repeated statements that he "would consider" running, and positioning as a moderate governor who has won in a red state. Gavin Newsom (19.8%) benefits from his high national visibility and term-limited status in California, though his focus remains on current governance and broader party positioning. Pete Buttigieg (14.5%) has recently signaled openness, stating in an August 2026 podcast he is "more inclined than not" to launch another bid after earlier polling leads in places like New Hampshire. Kamala Harris (12.5%) and others such as Ro Khanna (8.5%) factor in through exploratory signals—Khanna notably said in July 2026 he is "strongly considering" a run following a West Bank trip—but traders appear to discount early announcements from higher-profile or more cautious figures amid the fragmented post-2024 landscape. Upcoming midterm activity and candidate travel to key states could shift probabilities before any formal entry.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAndy Beshear 29%
Gavin Newsom 19.9%
Pete Buttigieg 13%
Kamala Harris 13%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2028
Andy Beshear
29%
Gavin Newsom
20%
Pete Buttigieg
20%
Kamala Harris
13%
Ro Khanna
9%
Rahm Emanuel
8%
Josh Shapiro
4%
Jon Ossoff
2%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
2%
Jon Stewart
<1%
Stephen A. Smith
<1%
Andy Beshear 29%
Gavin Newsom 19.9%
Pete Buttigieg 13%
Kamala Harris 13%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2028
Andy Beshear
$1,880 ปริมาณ
29%
Gavin Newsom
$2,758 ปริมาณ
20%
Pete Buttigieg
$580 ปริมาณ
20%
Kamala Harris
$504 ปริมาณ
13%
Ro Khanna
$383 ปริมาณ
9%
Rahm Emanuel
$512 ปริมาณ
8%
Josh Shapiro
$306 ปริมาณ
4%
Jon Ossoff
$306 ปริมาณ
2%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$391 ปริมาณ
2%
Jon Stewart
$364 ปริมาณ
<1%
Stephen A. Smith
$284 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on the first Democrat to announce a 2028 presidential bid reflects a wide-open field with no formal declarations yet, keeping "Other" at 50%.** Andy Beshear leads listed options at 28.5% due to his active 2026 midterm surrogacy in early states like Iowa, repeated statements that he "would consider" running, and positioning as a moderate governor who has won in a red state. Gavin Newsom (19.8%) benefits from his high national visibility and term-limited status in California, though his focus remains on current governance and broader party positioning. Pete Buttigieg (14.5%) has recently signaled openness, stating in an August 2026 podcast he is "more inclined than not" to launch another bid after earlier polling leads in places like New Hampshire.
Kamala Harris (12.5%) and others such as Ro Khanna (8.5%) factor in through exploratory signals—Khanna notably said in July 2026 he is "strongly considering" a run following a West Bank trip—but traders appear to discount early announcements from higher-profile or more cautious figures amid the fragmented post-2024 landscape. Upcoming midterm activity and candidate travel to key states could shift probabilities before any formal entry.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,270วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on the first Democrat to announce a 2028 presidential bid reflects a wide-open field with no formal declarations yet, keeping "Other" at 50%.** Andy Beshear leads listed options at 28.5% due to his active 2026 midterm surrogacy in early states like Iowa, repeated statements that he "would consider" running, and positioning as a moderate governor who has won in a red state. Gavin Newsom (19.8%) benefits from his high national visibility and term-limited status in California, though his focus remains on current governance and broader party positioning. Pete Buttigieg (14.5%) has recently signaled openness, stating in an August 2026 podcast he is "more inclined than not" to launch another bid after earlier polling leads in places like New Hampshire.
Kamala Harris (12.5%) and others such as Ro Khanna (8.5%) factor in through exploratory signals—Khanna notably said in July 2026 he is "strongly considering" a run following a West Bank trip—but traders appear to discount early announcements from higher-profile or more cautious figures amid the fragmented post-2024 landscape. Upcoming midterm activity and candidate travel to key states could shift probabilities before any formal entry.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,270วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the first Democrat to announce a 2028 presidential bid reflects a wide-open field with no formal declarations yet, keeping "Other" at 50%.** Andy Beshear leads listed options at 28.5% due to his active 2026 midterm surrogacy in early states like Iowa, repeated statements that he "would consider" running, and positioning as a moderate governor who has won in a red state. Gavin Newsom (19.8%) benefits from his high national visibility and term-limited status in California, though his focus remains on current governance and broader party positioning. Pete Buttigieg (14.5%) has recently signaled openness, stating in an August 2026 podcast he is "more inclined than not" to launch another bid after earlier polling leads in places like New Hampshire. Kamala Harris (12.5%) and others such as Ro Khanna (8.5%) factor in through exploratory signals—Khanna notably said in July 2026 he is "strongly considering" a run following a West Bank trip—but traders appear to discount early announcements from higher-profile or more cautious figures amid the fragmented post-2024 landscape. Upcoming midterm activity and candidate travel to key states could shift probabilities before any formal entry.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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