Ongoing US-Iran tensions and fresh vessel attacks in mid-August 2026 have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 20% of the pre-crisis 60-ship daily average, according to live tracking data, sustaining the 55.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic through year-end. Recent US statements on indefinite naval pressure and Iranian conditions tied to Oman-mediated talks have reinforced trader expectations of extended disruption, with insurance premiums and security risks deterring commercial volumes. Modest reopening odds clustered in September through December reflect limited scope for de-escalation before FOMC and energy-market catalysts later this year, though stalled interim agreements underscore the barriers to verified normalization.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNo Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 56%
September 13%
December 11%
November 9%
$292,598 ปริมาณ
$292,598 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
August
2%
September
13%
October
8%
November
9%
December
11%
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
56%
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 56%
September 13%
December 11%
November 9%
$292,598 ปริมาณ
$292,598 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
August
$44,867 ปริมาณ
2%
September
$15,274 ปริมาณ
13%
October
$9,104 ปริมาณ
8%
November
$7,046 ปริมาณ
9%
December
$15,770 ปริมาณ
11%
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
$174,711 ปริมาณ
56%
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and fresh vessel attacks in mid-August 2026 have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 20% of the pre-crisis 60-ship daily average, according to live tracking data, sustaining the 55.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic through year-end. Recent US statements on indefinite naval pressure and Iranian conditions tied to Oman-mediated talks have reinforced trader expectations of extended disruption, with insurance premiums and security risks deterring commercial volumes. Modest reopening odds clustered in September through December reflect limited scope for de-escalation before FOMC and energy-market catalysts later this year, though stalled interim agreements underscore the barriers to verified normalization.
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$292,598วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and fresh vessel attacks in mid-August 2026 have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 20% of the pre-crisis 60-ship daily average, according to live tracking data, sustaining the 55.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic through year-end. Recent US statements on indefinite naval pressure and Iranian conditions tied to Oman-mediated talks have reinforced trader expectations of extended disruption, with insurance premiums and security risks deterring commercial volumes. Modest reopening odds clustered in September through December reflect limited scope for de-escalation before FOMC and energy-market catalysts later this year, though stalled interim agreements underscore the barriers to verified normalization.
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$292,598วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran tensions and fresh vessel attacks in mid-August 2026 have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 20% of the pre-crisis 60-ship daily average, according to live tracking data, sustaining the 55.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic through year-end. Recent US statements on indefinite naval pressure and Iranian conditions tied to Oman-mediated talks have reinforced trader expectations of extended disruption, with insurance premiums and security risks deterring commercial volumes. Modest reopening odds clustered in September through December reflect limited scope for de-escalation before FOMC and energy-market catalysts later this year, though stalled interim agreements underscore the barriers to verified normalization.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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